How the Use of A.I. in the Road-based Logistics and Transportation Can Be Smooth and Congruent with the Current Status Quo
People talk a lot these days about how self-driving cars will solve all of our logistics and transportation related problems when they finally hit the roads. The thing is that the problems they are trying to solve are not as simple, nor is their adoption going to be as easy as these idealistic people think. Although there is nothing wrong with dreaming of a better future, free of traffic and avoidable accidents, it’s also important to look at this matter from a more realistic point of view.
First of all, the self-driving car needs to be re-examined. The idea of a car completely autonomous is a long ways from manifestation, even if there are A.I. systems out there that can navigate a car effectively over large distances. However, considering that these A.I. drivers will become the norm in the foreseeable future is quite unrealistic. The reason is simple economics. These systems are going to be very expensive, so they will naturally appeal only to a small part of the population. Also, as they gradually become more affordable, they will push down the price of conventional vehicles, making the latter more appealing. This is dynamic systems 101, something that apparently many of these visionaries of the self-driving cars are not that familiar with, just like they don’t understand people that well. If Joe and Jane find that this new self-driving car costs 50% more than the car they’ve been dreaming of for the past 5 years, because that particular make of car has been around forever and that model has been heavily advertised ever since they can remember, they will probably go with the conventional car, even if the self-driving car is an objectively better choice in general.
However, if A.I. systems in cars were to adopt an auxiliary role, much like Elon Musk envisions for his Tesla vehicles, then they have a chance. After all, not many people are willing to give up control of their cars just yet. This is evident when you talk with competent drivers who have been outside the US. These people take a strong interest in the stick-shift cars, since it gives them more control over the car, making them feel better about their role as drivers. Also, stick-shift cars are more economical, require less maintenance in terms of the transmission (e.g. no transmission fluids), and are generally quite reliable (as much as their automatic counterparts). Unless of course you never learn how to use the clutch, which is another matter!
If self-driving cars are self-driving only at certain times when the driver chooses to (e.g. in the case of a long road trip, or a mundane commute over I-90), then they can definitely add value. However, if they are entirely self-sufficient with no potential input from the human in the driver’s seat, then they are less likely to gain people’s trust, apart from those prejudiced towards their inherent value. Whatever the case, it is interesting to see how this new trend will evolve and what kind of data it will bring about for data science professionals to analyze!
Zacharias Voulgaris, PhD
Passionate data scientist with a foxy approach to technology, particularly related to A.I.